Climate variability changes ultimately impacts on agriculture and subsequently food
productivity and security. In Kenya, milk production is predominantly smallholder and
dependent on rain fed agriculture. To ensure that dairy farmers are empowered to effectively
prepare, adapt and mitigate the effect of extreme climate changes, this study aimed at
investigating the effect of climate change on milk production in smallholder farms; a case of
Nandi county, Kenya. Primary data sources of data included observed and climate model
outputs (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature), fodder availability (Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index –NDVI and Soil Moisture), milk production (milk marketed).
Secondary data was sourced through structured questionnaires, focus group discussion, and
key informant interviews. The study used concurrent triangulation research design to allow
mixed-methods research methodologies. Trend analysis and spatial plots were used to analyse
spatiotemporal variability of past and future climate (2021-2050) was based on RCP45 and
RCP85. Relationship between climate and milk production were based on correlation and multi
regression analysis. Graphs and pie charts were also used to present the results.
Past and projected precipitation showed bimodal patterns with high spatial and temporal
variability with remarkable differences between baseline and projected precipitation under
RCP45 (-19.5% to 11.0%) and RCP85 (-9.5% and 26.3%) scenarios. Past and projected
maximum and minimum temperatures showed increasing trends. Monthly NDVI and soil
moisture values were higher in April and November while seasonal values were high/low in
JJA/DJF indicating high/low fodder availability. Milk production showed positive change from
2007 to 2016 with highest/lowest values in April/December. Computed percentage change in
seasonal milk production showed increases of up to 186% (MAM), 183% (JJA), 202% (SON),
and 214% (DJF) whereas annual milk production showed increases of up to 204%. The
lowest/highest correlation coefficients were found in precipitation/minimum temperature at lag
0, 1 and 2 while the selected models based on different predictors based on climate and fodder
availability showing positive relationship with milk production.
Over 79% of household involved in milk production in Nandi County are male headed.
Although drought was found to be the leading climate hazard affecting their grazing practices,
other factors such as rainfall variability, rainfall unpredictability and extreme temperatures also
affected grazing practices. The survey results indicated that observed changes in milk
production, the amount of water available for the animal, body condition of the animal, heat
detected and growth of calves and heifers were negative in almost all the wards in the County
implying that climate change had negatively impacted on dairy productivity. The most
important source of animal feed were natural pastures mainly from farmers own farms (86.9%),
crop residue (62.6%), planted fodder such as Nappier grass (39.4%), communal land (19.2%)
and others purchased their fodder (16.2%) with most farmers depended on natural pasture from
their farms (76.5%).
Majority of farmers planted fodder in less than 0.5 acres of land for Napier (79.7%), Sorghum
(54.3%), Rhodes grass (57.3%), Kikuyu Grass (49.4%), Lucerne (71.9%) and fodder Tree
(82.1%) and conserved/preserved crop residue (88.2%), hay (39.9%) and silage (35.4%).
Communal lands were noted to be overgrazed and very little fodder was available with the
grass growth not beyond one foot. Methods used to address negative experiences of climate
change included use conserved hay/silage (44.2%), buying of commercial feeds (40.9%), use
crop residue (74.6%), moving of animals to other farms (8.8%) and selling of animals (17.4%).
Other measures adopted by households to help them avert negative climate change included
use of new fodder types/varieties, new planning methods, intercropping different fodder,
conservation and preservation practices. Smallholder farms had also adopted climate smart
agricultural technologies such as compost making (18.6%), use of biogas (2.5%), water
conservation (56.6%), disease control (95.4%), planting of fodder trees (30.1%), reducing the
number of animals (36.6%) and breeding using AI (63.4%).
The study findings indicate that dairy productivity is highly sensitive to climate. Moreover,
fodder availability which is also vulnerable to changes in climate significantly influences milk
production. Given the high spatial and temporal variability in these environmental factors, it is
expected that the projected change will significantly challenge future dairy productivity
especially in Nandi County of Kenya. The study recommends the need to improve on
monitoring of weather and climate by increasing observation stations and development weather
and climate products targeting milk production. There is also need to develop climate smart
fodder varieties/production methods and adoption of the use of climate smart fodder
varieties/production methods. Moreover, policy makers need not only to promote the use of
climate smart fodder varieties/production methods but also mainstreaming climate change
information into development planning, budgeting and implementation at national and county
levels.